DE Weekly: Regret, Sunk Cost, & The Wrong Train Theory
Below is an archived email originally sent on March 23, 2026.
Regret, Sunk Cost, & The Wrong Train Theory
There is a metaphor for life often attributed to a Japanese proverb which is called the “Wrong Train Theory.” The proverb goes something like this: “If you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station. The longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be.”
The Wrong Train Theory suggests that if you are on a train that you thought was taking you where you needed to go or wanted to be, but you realize after a time that you’ve boarded the wrong one, you should get out at the very next stop.
The train, in this metaphor, represents paths in life––a career, a relationship, a habit you’ve grown accustomed to––and tells us that it is alright if we are on the wrong path, so long as we have the courage to correct the course.
Because the longer you stay on the wrong train or the wrong path, it becomes harder and harder to get off, leaving you further from where you need to be; this is especially true if you already know where you should be.
Underlying this metaphor (and creating the need for it at all) is a cognitive bias called the Sunk Cost Fallacy, which is when people convince themselves that it is too late to start over, too late to drop something altogether, too late to get off the train they are on, simply because they have invested so much time, money, and energy into it.
Imagining a sunk cost into your paths in life can make you feel as though the choices you’ve made are irreversible, that it is simply too late to stop and turn around, or maybe to take a fork in the road that divests from the one you are on.
The Wrong Train Theory tells us this is not true. What is true is that it is never too late to change trains.
If you’ve read my past newsletters or, even better, the Existentialist literature those newsletters are about, you already know this to be true.
Existentialist philosophy reflects this metaphor in the manner it approaches our individual freedom and accountability, emphasizing our ability to create meaning in our lives.
We are “condemned” to a radical freedom in life, Jean-Paul Sartre writes, such that we are free to choose our paths in life and take accountability for our decisions––both the right ones and the wrong ones. Moreover, we always retain the power to correct course if we don’t like where our train is headed.
We are responsible for creating our own path––for controlling our own train, so to speak––and so the ability to simply get off and find another is always an option available to us.
To realize that you are on the wrong train headed somewhere you know is not the right destination and to still not get off the train would be an act of Mauvaise Foi––of Bad Faith––and would constitute pretending that we are not free to change course.
Thus, it behooves us to reject bad-faith living and choose instead to embrace authenticity; taking ownership of your life and purpose is what it means to live authentically.
For all the weight we give to the Sunk Cost Fallacy, we would do well to realize, too, that in everything, there is a cost of not choosing, as well.
Specifically, if you realize you are on a path that is wrong for you, the cost of not doing anything about it far outweighs the cost of actually getting off that path and doing something about it to change your circumstances.
Inevitably, this not choosing leads to more dissatisfaction and leads you further still from your path.
Realizing you are on the wrong train is not something to be ashamed of. It is not a failure. It is a moment of clarity: you have remembered you have Free Will, that you are responsible for your choices, and that you have the ability to chart your own path.
The Irish poet David Whyte said, “How do you know that you’re on your path? Because it disappears.” These words help bring us comfort regarding walking the “wrong” path, or even a path that hasn’t been tread yet, by reminding us sometimes we simply have to figure it out over time.
So, if we were stuck on the wrong train in life, what would existentialism teach us is the way off?
First, to identify that you are, in fact, treading a path that is not yours. Perhaps you feel dread at where your life is headed, perhaps you can’t muster the courage to get up in the morning and spend another day at waste, perhaps you have realized you are selling your soul for comfort and not for meaning.
Once you have identified this truth, get off the train. Reject any notion of a sunk cost too costly and start anew. Starting anew can be uncomfortable and messy, yes, but this is where authenticity will come to fruition in your life.
You will feel the bad faith melt away and the meaning begin to reveal itself.
Most important to remember is that there is always a point to riding a train, even if it is the wrong one. You might get lost and have to find your way back, but that’s okay.
“To go wrong in one's own way is better than to go right in someone else's.” –– Fyodor Dostoevsky, Crime and Punishment
Thanks for reading.
Sincerely,
Brandon J. Seltenrich
P.S.––
It is never too late to get off the wrong train.
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